Ethereum Price Analysis: Key Resistance at $1,796 Could Open Path to $2,245, Says Analyst

Resistance Stack: $1,796 to $1,844

Analyst Ali Martinez, writing on X, maps Ethereum's overhead supply in three tiers: $1,796 as the primary resistance (MVRV-derived), $1,816 as a secondary level, and $1,844 marking the channel top. Above that band, the next magnet sits at $2,245 — the average on-chain acquisition price for ETH holders, which historically behaves as both support and resistance. The TD Sequential baseline aligns at $1,796, adding a timing component to the MVRV-based zone. A decisive close above $1,844 on rising volume opens the path toward $2,245; failure inside the cluster likely produces consolidation or a pullback to lower bids.

Two-Sided Flow at the Lows

On-chain data from analyst Raintures (@raintures) shows the recent dip toward $1,500 cleared with simultaneous inflows and outflows. Roughly 100,000 unique addresses deposited ETH to Binance during the panic-selling window — typically a sell-side tell — yet withdrawal volumes rose in parallel, indicating accumulation into self-custody at the same levels. The positioning isn't one-directional. Polymarket's contract market mirrors the split: traders price a ~73% probability that ETH reaches $2,000 in 2026 and a ~68% probability it revisits $1,500 before then. Both outcomes priced high at once, in the analyst's words.

Macro and the Liquidation Question

The $1,800 area also doubles as a leverage test. Coindoo's headline frames the current print as a deleveraging event that could validate the move if buyers absorb the forced selling without slippage. Beyond the chart, the macro tape remains the swing factor — Cleveland Fed President Hammack has warned that AI-driven productivity gains could reignite inflation and force additional rate hikes, a backdrop that keeps duration risk elevated for high-beta assets like ETH. Bitcoin's trajectory and ETF flow data continue to set the ceiling.

What to Track

• A daily close above $1,844 with volume expansion; absence of that confirmation keeps the $1,796–$1,844 cluster a sell zone rather than launch pad.
• Exchange netflows on Binance: a shift from balanced deposits/withdrawals to net outflows would confirm accumulation.
• Polymarket repricing of the $2,000 vs. $1,500 contracts — convergence on one side signals consensus shift.
• Macro tape: any hawkish Fed surprise resets the MVRV target lower.

The data does not confirm a breakout. It confirms where the breakout has to occur to be tradable.